Angel Broking has come out with its report on Crude Oil, Copper, and Silver.
Weekly Price Performance: Nymex Crude Oil gained almost 1% w-o-w and on the MCX prices rose 2.2%.
US Energy Department Inventory: Last week witnessed a sharp decline in inventory levels by 6.7 million barrels to reach 346.4 million barrels for the week ending 9th September. Gasoline stocks increased 1.9 million barrels to 210.8 million barrels, whereas distillates rose by 1.7 million barrels to reach 158.5 million barrels in the same week.
Fundamentals affecting oil prices: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its estimate for global oil demand this year by 1,60,000 barrels per day to 1.04 million barrels. Demand growth for 2012 is estimated to decline by 1,90,000 bpd to 1.42 million bpd. The OPEC and the US department of energy both have also cut their forecasts for global oil demand growth thismonth. Sharp fall in US crude oil inventories.
Outlook: Crude oil prices are expected to trade with a negative bias this week on expectations of slowdown in oil demand amid the globa economic worries will add pressure on prices.
Weekly Strategy: MCX October Crude Oil: Support 4037/3890 Resistance 4320/4450(CMP: 4137). Nymex Crude Oil: Support 86.30/82.50 Resistance 90.50/93.50 (CMP: 86.67)
Weekly Price Performance: LME copper declined 1.6% w-o-w and MCX copper November contract slipped around 0.5%.
Inventories: On a weekly basis, copper LME inventories rose around 0.2% to 466,025 tonnes. Shanghai weekly copper stocks dropped by 1.1 percent to 112,061 tonnes last week. Prices took cues from: Rise in inventories on the LME warehouse. Strike in Indonesia and Peru cushioned further losses.
Demand Supply scenario: Strike involving thousands of workers at Freeport McMoRan’s Indonesian copper mine and port has delayed around 133,000 tonnes of copper ore concentrate shipments. This strike has created the
supply concerns which would be supportive for copper prices.
Outlook: Copper is expected to come under pressure this week on account of economic concerns and a stronger dollar. However, supply concerns will cushion sharp downside in prices.
Weekly Strategy: MCX Copper: Support 408/402 Resistance 420/427 (CMP: 409.15). LME Copper: Support 8560/8430 Resistance 8850/9000 (CMP: 8517)
Weekly Price Performance: Spot silver dropped sharply by more than 2% w-o-w and prices on theMCX slipped by 1%
Factors that led downside: Fall in gold prices. Positive sentiments in globalmarkets affected demand for silver. Silver being an industrial metal also took cues from base metals complex.
ETF performance: Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world’s largest silverbacked exchange-traded fund, rose 1.1 percent to 9,956.32 tonnes by 16th September from the previous 9847.82 tonnes on 9th September 2011.
Outlook: Silver is expected to rise during the week as economic concerns continue and will boost demand for precious metals. Sharp upside however could be capped if economic worries heighten.
Weekly Strategy: Buy MCX Silver December in the range of 64100-64000 with strict stop-loss below 62800 Targeting initially 66800 and then 67400.(CMP: 64965). Spot Silver Support 39.50 / 38.20 Resistance 41.50 / 42.60 (CMP:
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